A few years ago, I found myself wrestling with the feeling of being left behind. The cause of this unease? The roaring bandwagon of cryptocurrency. Each day, I was inundated with stories of individuals whose investments had grown by astonishing multiples, allowing them to embrace lavish lifestyles while leaving the toil of work behind. Online tutorials on investing in Bitcoin and various cryptocurrencies proliferated, equipped with fancy jargon like NFTs, Stablecoins, Altcoins, etc. which left me feeling like a modern-day Flintstone in the age of technology. As a few of my friends delved into crypto investments, they persistently reminded me of the financial wisdom I was seemingly ignoring.

However, when we fast forward a couple of years, the cryptocurrency bubble burst dramatically. Prominent figures like Sam Bankman, the head of FTX crypto exchange and a billionaire who had served as a poster boy for the crypto world, faced arrest. This abrupt turn of events stirred memories of the Tulip bubble in the Netherlands during the 17th century, a historical tale of financial speculation gone awry. Fortunately, I was content with the modest gains from my Fixed Deposits, a marked contrast to the negative returns experienced by many who had rushed into cryptocurrency.

These examples vividly underscore the dilemmas tied to social trends, particularly within the technology and finance sectors. These trends share common characteristics with those in finance, fashion, health, and more. While fashion trends can lead to considerable expenditures, their impact may be somewhat superficial on society. Similarly, health trends, such as various diets like Keto, Paleo, and intermittent fasting can exert significant influence on individuals’ lifestyles but may not have a large scale impact. Trends such as Pokémon Go and Center Fresh cricket cards had even briefer lifespans and left a negligible impact.

Though many trends prove ephemeral, some emerge as long-term mainstays. The art lies in distinguishing those with lasting power from those destined to fade into obscurity. Consider the advent of the internet as a prime example. Renowned economist Paul Krugman once boldly claimed that “The Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine’s… ten years from now, the phrase ‘information economy’ will sound silly.” Inevitably, both businesses and individuals adapted to the internet’s ubiquity.

Early adopters of new technologies stand at the forefront. They confront the challenge of determining whether a new technology will have enduring impact or be a transient phenomenon. This judgment depends on a multitude of factors. Is the new technology capable of resolving significant problems? Does it represent a ground-breaking innovation or a mere incremental step? Is there potential for a superior technology to render it obsolete? A case in point is the fate of pagers, made extinct by the advent of mobile phones. Similarly, there was once a fervent debate over whether Blu-ray media or HD DVDs would dominate the future of multimedia storage. Ultimately, both were displaced by the direct streaming paradigm, facilitated by rapidly advancing internet speeds.

At present, Artificial Intelligence (AI) stands as the dominant trend in technology discussions. While Generative AI is undeniably ground-breaking, people still grapple with uncertainty regarding how it will redefine the technological landscape. In the broader context, it’s evident that AI’s usage will increase, but pinpointing the specific domains that will significantly benefit remains a challenging task. This situation is reminiscent of the blockchain technology’s trajectory.
While the technology is here to stay, it’s challenging to predict precisely how it will be leveraged to deliver substantial value. In the realm of AI, where should one invest their resources? These questions loom large in the minds of many.

Beyond the Fomo (Fear of Missing Out) that accompanies the latest developments in AI and the flood of technical jargon, individuals often grapple with understanding the substance and real-world implications. Conversations regarding potential job displacement go along with claims that new job opportunities will emerge in AI’s wake. We currently find ourselves within a sweeping trend, the outcome of which remains uncertain. Early adopters brave risks by betting on AI, which might lead to substantial gains or significant losses.

A study of historical trends in finance, technology, and health offers essential lessons. One primary takeaway is the folly of placing bets on something not thoroughly understood. Therefore, the first step is to become a student, delving into the fundamentals of the ongoing trend, rather than blindly following public perception. Only once a comprehensive understanding has been gained should one venture to invest in a promising technology or trend.

In essence, navigating the world of trends is like a thrilling adventure. It’s a journey marked by the excitement of discovery, the fear of risk, and the hope of reaching new heights. By adhering to the principles of comprehending the fundamentals, assessing the problem-solution fit, distinguishing between ground-breaking and incremental changes, considering the potential for redundancy, evaluating the impact on daily life, and weighing the risks and rewards, individuals can make informed and calculated decisions about which trends are worth their attention and resources. This approach ensures that one remains well-equipped to ride the wave of trends, be it in finance, technology, fashion, health, or any other domain.

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